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Tuesday, April 28, 2009

2007 NFL Betting: Analyzing The NFC East

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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS): His personal problems behind him, Head Coach Andy Reid should lead the Eagles to their seventh playoff appearance in the last nine years. Returning from injury and motivated by the drafting of Houston QB Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb will be the key to Philadelphia’s offensive success. RB Brian Westbrook is nothing if not versatile and the offensive line had all five starters play all 16 games last year. The Eagles attack on defense, blitzing as much as any team in the league. The corners can handle that pressure but Philadelphia needs to upgrade its rush defense, ranked 26th in the NFL last year, to make a playoff run.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)
SU: 83-61
ATS: 80-59-5
HF: 23-23-1
HD: 13-9-3
AF: 18-11
AD: 26-17-1
Sportsbook Buster: The Eagles are a stellar 8-1 ATS versus the Vikings, who they play in Minnesota, Oct. 28.
Sports Betting Angle: Philadelphia is 11-1 ATS the week after playing the NY Giants. This year’s post Giants foes are the Jets (Oct. 14) and the Cowboys (Dec. 16).

DALLAS COWBOYS (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS): Taskmaster Bill Parcells has retired, turning over the reigns to easy-going Wade Phillips, who earned his reputation forming the San Diego defense. Indeed, Dallas should be more aggressive (and more productive) in the Phillips 3-4, than under Parcells, who was more conservative. On offense, there’s a question whether QB Tony Romo can rebound from a devastating playoff loss (the botched field goal hold in Seattle) and whether WR Terrell Owens can be placated. Julius Jones and Marion Barber form a tough running tandem but the line is just average. The Cowboys should be in the wild card hunt.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)
SU: 67-77
ATS: 69-69-6
HF: 25-21-4
HD: 14-7
AF: 8-11
AD: 23-28
Sportsbook Buster: Their last six meetings, the Cowboys are 0-5-1 ATS versus the Giants, who they play Sept. 9 and Nov. 11.
Sports Betting Angle: Dallas is 4-15 ATS versus non-conference foes on the road.

NEW YORK GIANTS (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS): The pressure is on Head Coach Tom Coughlin and QB Eli Manning to produce. Coughlin, not the most popular of coaches, needs Manning to improve on his 18-24 TD to interception ratio. That might be difficult now that RB Tiki Barber (1,662 yards rushing) has retired and the offensive line lost Luke Petitgout. Jeremy Shockey is a gifted tight end while Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer (if the latter is healthy after ACL surgery) are competent wideouts. On defense, the Giants must address problems in their secondary but new coordinator Steve Spagnuolo hopes to minimize that concern with a strong pass rush. Manning will have to have a big year for New York to reach the playoffs.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)
SU: 73-71
ATS: 69-73-1
HF: 23-29-1
HD: 8-10
AF: 15-9
AD: 23-23-1
Sportsbook Buster: The Giants have covered three straight against the Jets, who they play Oct. 7.
Sports Betting Angle: New York is 10-2 as an underdog against the AFC East.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS): Jason Campbell got the call in week 11 and now has the job at quarterback but will Washington open it up or play it tight this year? The return of Clinton Portis, who missed the final seven weeks of the season with a broken hand, and the return of Ladell Betts (1,154 yards rushing) suggest that the Redskins will be primarily a running team. If Campbell wants to throw, TE Chris Cooley and wideouts Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El, are quality targets. The Washington defense, which ranked 31st in the NFL last season and set a league record for fewest turnovers (12) in a 16-game schedule needs to improve dramatically if the Redskins are to climb out of the NFC East basement.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2002-2006)
SU: 65-79
ATS: 66-73-5
HF: 18-23-2
HD: 12-15
AF: 8-11-1
AD: 27-18-1
Sportsbook Buster: The Redskins have failed to cover six straight games against the Packers, who they play in Green Bay, Oct. 14.
Sports Betting Angle: Washington has been an adept road underdog, a position in which the team is likely to find itself seven or eight times this season.

Legend:
SU = Straight Up
ATS = Against the Spread
HF = Home Favorite
HD = Home Underdog
AF = Away Favorite
AD = Away Underdog

Fifth of an eight-part NFL betting preview series
Next: Analyzing the NFC North

Luken Karel
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